My professional career has always been focused on figuring out where a country is headed, why and what are the risks. I have been a sovereign analyst, first looking at Emerging Market countries and then Developed Market countries, since my first job in 2004. My analysis has always been with a view to what the debt market will do. Once the other in-house asset classes caught wind of my stellar macroeconomic analysis, I started helping the private placements group as well as the manager selectors in private equity and hedge funds out. This proved an interesting exercise in using the same information for a different end. I enjoyed my ventures outside of debt markets and continue to apply my know-how to other asset classes and different time horizons.
I’ve been through the highs and lows in both Emerging and Developed Markets sovereign investing. In 2006 I convinced conservative American-centric Investment Grade investors that Brazil and Turkey were the places to be. I used these same skills during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis to reassure gun-shy investors that Belgium and France weren’t going to default, and Italy wasn’t leaving the Euro Area. I am proud I avoided Iceland though I didn’t really dodge Ukraine . . .
I love the storytelling that is involved in the analysis process and how a myriad of influences push and pull on growth forecasts. There is much to learn about a country and its economic potential between the fiscal balance sheet and the political overlay. I continue to rely on the mix of traditional fiscal and economic indicators incorporating the political situation and government policies to help guide my decision process.
I’ve also begun to incorporate explicit views on sustainability or an Environmental, Societal and Governance (ESG) given we must be active in protecting today’s and the future wellbeing of our planet and all those on it. Someday soon, regulation and culture will join people like me who already recognize the importance of stewardship of our environment. To this end, I work closely with the Emerging Markets Investors Alliance.
Way back when, before my professional career, I spent my academic career at Smith and Columbia University trying to figure out how the government and the private sector create an environment conducive to growth with a chunk of that time on the ground in Brazil, Uruguay, and Argentina.
I’m also mom to two lovely boys and have renewed my passion for sport with them. Though cricket remains a mystery and a test of my patience. If you haven’t gathered from my ‘mom’ spelling, I’m American though now also a UK citizenship holder as well.
The very British husband has sold me on tea, but he’s just as skeptical as I am about this UK political landscape but looks at things through an equities lens. It’s a multi-asset household.
I’m using the skills garnered on the trading floor to offer bespoke research and a monthly newsletter. I’m using this blog to inform, entertain, and to keep myself out of trouble. I also host sovereign-focused events, webinars and conference calls and am media trained.
If you want to know why Ally Pally: check out Alexandra Palace and then google darts: try not to chuckle too loud at the costumes. It’s in my neck of the woods and great for a stroll, a run or a beer.
You can also learn more about me on LinkedIn.
Everything in this blog is my own personal opinion. It should not be considered investment advice or any other type of professional advice. I do not act in any way as a financial advisor and do not hold myself out to be such. Please consult a financial advisor before investing.