The Catholics are right; Merkel should listen

The Catholics have made a lot of mistakes but one-pope rule shows why Angela Merkel should have left the public eye a while ago. Merkel was the sun to Germany’s and the EU’s world through a difficult period but this Merkelcentric period is over and she needs to leave.

Merkel’s desire to preserve her legacy will only destroy it and complicate German politics in a time when the local and global economy isn’t robust enough to handle yet one more political upheaval. If she doesn’t take the long arm approach during this leadership challenge, Germany will suffer as well as Europe and her reign will be viewed as quaint and antiquated as the geocentric period.

Too bad the storyline isn’t new. 

The successful politician always stays too long, the dollar-peg is always held too long, the interest rate is kept too low too long is also proving to be a bit accurate. Unfortunately, all decisions are ultimately made by humans and the tendency is always to stay too long at the party. There is a lot of evidence that Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer was not the right politician to run the CDU or be Merkel’s heir apparent, but it was clouded by Merkel’s heavy hand. Her 52% victory over Friedrich Merz’s 48% in December 2018 wasn’t overwhelming and her mini-Merkel rhetoric suggested nothing but continuity without dare-I-say The Merkel Charm.  

Now the economy is even worse and where action is needed we have a political vacuum. The economic outlook looks set to worsen until there’s more transparency and hopefully resolution around the Coronavirus but that doesn’t seem to be on the horizon. I thought I’d escape mentioned Brexit but this is also the time that EU unity and direction needs to be laser-focused and it won’t be and that is on Merkel.

German industrial production in December slumped 3.5% and European Industrial production contracted 2.1% and this is all before the Coronavirus or COVID-19 as we are supposed to call it (ask the artist formerly known as Prince how renaming goes). Recent IMF data also shows that Germany is exporting a larger portion of its GDP to China than even the US. The weakening Euro adds concern but still doesn’t trigger buying or a buoy to growth.

AKK is out as the next chancellor but will stay on as leader until there is a single individual selected to run both the CDU and as its candidate for chancellor. The field is already largely decided: Armin Laschet, who runs North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s largest state, and is a staunch Merkel supporter and holds her view of the CDU as a big tent party and would welcome coalitions with the Greens; Merz, a pro-business former CDU parliamentary leader and ex-Blackrock Germany chairman with a slant to the right and a critical view of Merkel; and Jens Spahn, the young health minister and it is actually hard to write much more about him.

Spahn is young, energetic and ambitious. While 2020 might not be his year, he’s got a lot more time than the rest of the field. Spahn was also first out of the previous leadership contest and as noted above, Merz lost to AKK by 35 votes in the final round in December 2018.

But to focus on just the CDU for Germany’s future is to miss a big part of the picture. Merkel sticking around has cost the CDU dearly despite how the next leadership/chancellor candidate round goes. The economy isn’t doing her any favors either. Too bad she didn’t move faster on the Schwarze Null and the risk of recession might not still hang over the country’s head. But she isn’t the first one that didn’t listen to me. But the CDU isn’t the only game in town: the Greens are on the ascendancy and are looking stronger and stronger at a time when mainstream politicians are losing their standing globally.  

The Greens are making sense on spending to upgrade transport, digital, energy and other infrastructure, listening to me on the Schwarze Null and a higher minimum wage, rent caps and removing recently implemented changes to the welfare system to make it more generous again. Polling is still 2nd place but the economy is looking worse as are the other political parties.  

The CDU leadership contest was accelerated by its partnering with the AfD in an obscure operational vote in Thuringia but concerns about AfD’s ascendency are well-founded given the global lurch to populists and nativists. The Greens offer a better way to cast off the oppression of historic party rule. Their leadership would be the change everyone wants without the need to swallow the bitter pill that many other countries are choosing when tossing out their status quo leaders.

Feel Free to File Under: NOT QUITE WHAT WE NEED TODAY BUT COULD PAY DIVIDENDS IN THE SHORT TERM